Board Thread:News and Announcements in game/@comment-5741122-20170215220713/@comment-31219859-20170331182034

Darthhue wrote: Michael2005jordan wrote: PixelKnight4866 wrote: 46 Tickets for a year and a half of generally fruitless gambling. Worth it. The pull rate for the featured cards is 4.001%, so statistically speaking; you should pull 5 featured SSR cards.

Atleast thats what I calculated (.04001 to the 46th power)...I didn't do so well in statistics class, lol. Ok, i can't see heresy in the name of math and remain silent (no offense people), so i will mmake a comment about it. Lets get the high school homework done.

1-The chance of pulling a featured ssr with ONE CERTAIN ANONYMOUS ticket is 4.004%, that's 0.04004 for you.

2-The chance of NOT getting a featured SSR in  ONE CERTAIN ANONYMOUS  ticket is

1-0.04004=0.95996

3-The chance of NOT getting any featured ssr from X tickets is 0.95996**X

4-The chance of getting AT LEAST ONE SSR from X ticket is hence 1-0.95996**X, so for 46 tickets you have a 1-0.95996**46=0.847, that's around 85%

If you want to calculate the chance of getting 2 or 3 tickets, you need to use more advanced mathematical tools, the binomial distribution of probablility.

So:

5-The probability of getting exactly k Featured SSRs with X tickets is

f(k,X,p)=(p**k*(1-p)**k)*(X!)/(k!*(X-k)!)

(Go for Probability mass function in the article for explanation, i expended the combination because i don't know who to write it if someone can help make it easier i would appreciate it)

take note that p is 0.04004, the probability of getting a Featured SSR in a ticket

you can also use the cumulative Distributive function F (from the article) to know the chance of getting 1 tickets or more, 2 tickets or more ETC.

PS: 0.04**46=5**(-111), that's kinda smaller than almost every quantity in the universe, it is the chance of getting a featured SSR in EVERY SINGLE TICKET.

Yeah that's it, now please if anyone can make this more readable, i wish you procede and do it You obviously know your statistics. Can you give me a formula that I can enter my # of summoning tickets (as x) and calculate how many featured cards I should end up with?