Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-32986096-20170829234954/@comment-28757546-20170904221118

Horus2297 wrote: Darthhue wrote:

In fact, 10%, or 0.1 is the probability of pulling an SSR in a single. the probability of pulling at least one SSR in a multi is 1 minus the probability of pulling no ssr in any of the 10 pulls of the said multi since a multi is asically the equivallent of 10 singles (it might not be but the statistics in the dokkanstats site suggest it, out of the scope of the discussion however)

this last probability is 0.9*0.9*0.9..; 10 times, by 0.9**10 i mean 0.9 to the power 10, sorry it is hard to write properly in the comments. so 0.9 is the probability of NOT getting an ssr in a certain single.

0.9**10 is the chance of NOT gettng an ssr in all the 10 singles, the chance of getting at least one ssr in the said 10 singles is 1 -0.9**10=0.65 (i used 66% previously, my bad)

this whole thing ialculation that comes from what we call the binomial distribution, university level statistics, no basic stuff. If you get it great, but if you didn't and you haven't studied statistics. It is totally normal

So the probability of getting an SSR in a multi is 65%, given that the probability of getting an ssr in a single is 10%. that doesn't mean that if you make 10 multis, you are guarrenteed to get 6 ssrs, since you're still a particular case, that can give you a rare result.

sadly, for a small number of multis, 65% is the only  number that matters, ybut the result is still random. You have 65% chance to pull at least one SSR in a multi, but also a 35% chance not to pull any. if you're unlucky enough, you might do 6 multis and get no SSRs.

Now another aspect might manifest itself to explain the unjustness, is here we suppose that the game's RNG is random enough, it can happen that the code isn't well made, that it gives you a similar result if you make consecutive attempts.

As an example for a bad RNG that would give the similar stats to those in the dokkanstats site, say you have a number generator that give you a umber between 1 and 1000, and gives you a card according to the number you picked. if you want a card to be pulled more often you assign him more numbers and so.

Now imagine the so called "random" number generator, gives you 1, than 2, than 3 etc... in order when you request a number

if you make 1 million attempts, it might seem random, and if you have millions of users attempting at the same time (pulling on the banner, namely requesting a number from the RNG)

they will indeed have a kinda random result, sinc the time they are pulling in is naturally random.

But say one user comes and make 100 pulls, in a time when no other one is pulling, the RNG will actually give him 100 consecutive numbers. say 1-100. if those numbers are all assigned to SRs, he will only get SRs despite having made 10 multis, even if we suppose all the numbers fromm 101-1000 are SSRs, this is actually 90% chance of getting an SSR, this guy will get no SSR, this system might seem random when you make millions of pulls but isn't in fact suited to pulling in sparse times.

Now of course developpers, make the RNG give you random-unordered numbers, and assign the numbers to cards in a random way too. to make it more random-fair.

But no one actually knows how Bandai's developpers coded their RNG. It can certainly have faults that make it not random enough, and make the pulls unfair (you know, a lot of lucky people, and a lot of unlucky people, make the rates seem moderate and just on average although it isn't)

dokkanstats doesn't study the standard deviation of the number of ssrs per multi, that would say how a far -in avegrage- is an random pull from the global average. other parameters can be studied to tell how fair the system is. Sadly we know nothing other than average, that gives the probability i gave you above less meaningfull. But still it is the only piece of info we can pull from the info in the site.

i hope i was clear enough, i tried not to be boring, but i don't know how much i succeded